With Parliament back in session, our team has put together a summary of what's in store for the upcoming session. On the political front, the departure of super-minister Pierre Fitzgibbon will lead to a by-election in Terrebonne over the next six months. At the federal level, the end of the agreement between the NDP and the Liberal Party of Canada may mean an earlier election than expected. And let's not forget the approaching municipal elections in November 2025. Let's agree that the coming months will be marked by many changes on the political scene.
Positioning of political parties
Parti Québécois
Let's start with the Parti Québécois, ahead in the polls. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon is certainly benefiting from the winds of change blowing through the West, as we have seen in France and the UK. At 29-33% in the polls, the PQ troops must now work to consolidate their support and turn votes of dissatisfaction with the government into support for their ideas, in order to secure their lead for the next election in 2026.
The by-election in Terrebonne, which Premier Legault will have to call in the next six months due to the departure of Pierre Fitzgibbon, will test the strength and distribution of the PQ vote. At the National Assembly, the four musketeers will have to demonstrate how the sovereignist project can meet citizens' expectations. The closer we get to 2026, the more the PSPP troops will have to show how they intend to govern differently. Immigration is likely to be one example put forward by the party this autumn.
Coalition Avenir Québec
For its part, the Coalition Avenir Québec government managed to halt its slide over the summer. At more or less 24-25%, the government can look forward to two more years to prove to voters that they deserve a third term. Immigration, the recovery of public finances, infrastructure and energy are likely to be at the heart of their political agenda this autumn. As for Quebecers' eternal priority, healthcare, the transition to the new Santé Québec agency, which ends on December 1, will be one to watch as the winter virus season approaches.
In terms of public finances, the government must present a plan to return to a balanced budget in the 2025 budget. The fall of 2024 will be used to put in place the fundamentals to get there. Austerity is not in the Caquist DNA. Reduced expectations for new departmental initiatives, regulatory relief and government efficiency will be the three driving forces to get us there. In light of the colossal sums required to return to balanced budgets, this is a tall order.
In the coming months, there will be more no's than yes's. If you're a company, association or industry group, it's best to present your turnkey solution to the government. As the saying goes, it's better to get organized than to be organized... by the government.
With the New Democratic Party's agreement with Justin Trudeau's Liberals unravelling, the spotlight will increasingly be on the next federal election, which may give the Caquist government a little breathing space.
Quebec Liberal Party
At almost 20% in the polls, the Liberal Party still has no leader, but a draft Quebec constitution championed by the son of a former leader and prime minister still adored by Liberal militants. Through the positions taken by its parliamentary wing, the 2024-2025 political year will be marked by the pre-race and then the official race for the PLQ leadership. Charles Milliard seems to have a head start on the organizational side. Denis Coderre and his tax situation continue to be the talk of the town, but he has yet to demonstrate his ability to add up beyond his flamboyant personality. If he fails to convince internally, the former mayor of Montreal will have to sell a lot of membership cards. Pablo Rodriguez is still sounding out his supporters, while Antoine Tardif, the young mayor of Victoriaville, has put an end to rumours about him.
In the House, the QLP, with its experience in managing the state, will continue to nag the government on its management of public finances - a way of turning the weakness of the Couillard years of Liberal austerity into credibility on the subject. As the official opposition, they have the MPs, the parliamentary time and the resources to get the job done.
Québec Solidaire
Québec Solidaire had a difficult spring session and will be trying to start afresh this autumn, against the backdrop of the replacement of Émilise Lessard-Therrien, the revision of the party's statutes and the updating of its positions.
First, the race for co-spokesperson. Ruba Ghazal has already announced her intention to run, having garnered 49.7% of the vote in the second round of the previous race. Will we see a coronation? Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois probably wouldn't mind avoiding a race that would lead to further debate and division within his ranks. In fact, there will be no shortage of debate when the program is reviewed in the autumn. Some said that the hardest part was done with GND's winning decision to revise the program. But the devil is in the details. Will we see the various internal factions of Québec Solidaire at work? It will be a moment of truth for the parliamentary wing, and a major distraction for the party.
In the House, the party is not spared the battle to become the real opposition to the Caquist government. Despite the gains made on housing, they must try to re-establish themselves on the political agenda. To do so, QS faces the challenge of broadening its support while avoiding alienating its partisan base. A real balancing act for Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois and his new co-spokesperson.
Bills to watch
Energy reform without an ideator
Bill 69, An Act to ensure the responsible governance of energy resources and to amend various legislative provisionsThe bill will mobilize parliamentarians from the first day of the new school year, in the absence of Pierre Fitzgibbon, who has made this reform a government priority. In Quebec, the energy issue has a quasi-identical dimension, and the question of residential rate modulation, as well as the opening up to private self-generation of electricity, will undoubtedly provoke discussions as passionate as they are necessary. The bill provides for the creation of a Integrated Energy Resources Management Plan (PGIRE) which will guide the actions and decisions of the government, local and regional partners, energy distributors and energy project developers. It's a safe bet that discussions on Quebec's energy future will continue beyond PL69, right up to the more detailed development of this PGIRE.
An infrastructure revolution?
Bill 61 aims to create the Mobilité Infra Québec transportation agency to facilitate the realization of future public transit projects. After the government used the CDPQ to build the REM, the Minister of Transport and Sustainable Mobility, Geneviève Guilbault, wants to add another tool to her toolbox to carry out large-scale public transit projects throughout Quebec. Her colleague Jonatan Julien is also attempting, with his Bill 62, which he himself describes as a "revolution", to relax the conditions for carrying out major infrastructure projects by facilitating the conclusion of agreements with private partners who will accompany public organizations from project ideation through to delivery. Debates on these bills are likely to take place against the backdrop of continuing heated discussions on the Quebec City tramway and the Third Link, for which Minister Guilbault has promised an update in the fall.
Reforming the mining regime
Tabled in the spring by the Minister of Natural Resources and Forestry, Maïté Blanchette-Vézina, Bill 63 does not delight mining representatives or critics of mining. In her bill, the Minister has decided to respond in part to the concerns of citizens and groups following consultations held a few months earlier, and to prohibit the purchase of mining claims on private land to avoid speculation. The purchase of claims has become a major source of concern in certain regions. For the lobby groups, the Minister should go further by ensuring that projects are socially acceptable and that environmental risk mitigation measures are more extensive before authorizing any mining project. In other words, this is quite a challenge for her, who will have to reconcile thoughtful mining development, under the guise of the energy transition, with social acceptability.
Sonia Lebel and the decompartmentalization of skills
With Bill 67, the President of the Treasury Board, still battling intense negotiations with nurses from the Fédération interprofessionnelle de la santé (FIQ), is once again attempting to expand the powers of certain healthcare professionals. First and foremost, adoption of the bill would see pharmacists able to prescribe or extend prescriptions for common illnesses, while certified nurses, psychologists, guidance counsellors, sexologists and speech therapists would be able to diagnose mental disorders. Add to this the whole question of staff mobility. In the same vein, Bill 68, tabled by Labour Minister Jean Boulet, aims to reduce doctors' administrative workloads, thereby freeing up 750,000 appointments per year.
Still with the aim of providing more services to citizens, Bill 67 would also create new restricted practice permits for certain professional services, and allow all professionals to incorporate as NPOs.
Special Commission on the impact of screens and social networks on young people's health and development
The National Assembly has unanimously adopted a motion to set up a special commission on the impact of screens and social networks on young people. The aim? To provide a better framework for the use of screens and social networks by young people. Public hearings and specific consultations will be held in the fall, where a number of organizations, including education and technology specialists, will be invited to share their views and propose possible solutions to guide future public policy. The commission covers a broad spectrum, from young people's screen time to the addictive mechanisms used by certain applications, or from access to social networks to advertising aimed at children on platforms and applications. The aim now is to strike a balance between the beneficial use of digital technologies and the protection of young people from some of their potentially harmful effects on their health and development.
Upcoming bills
Construction
The construction sector will continue to experience change as Labor Minister Jean Boulet signals his intention to introduce new legislation to increase public protection and improve construction quality.
Higher education
The Prime Minister also telegraphed his intention for the Minister of Higher Education, Pascale Déry, to table a bill aimed at reducing the number of international students admitted to his educational institutions, sowing concern among regional CEGEPs in particular.
A mid-term atmosphere
Mid-term is often a low point for deputies. The excitement of the beginning of the mandate is over. All MPs have gone through their parliamentary exercises. Everyone is, or should be, at ease. On the other hand, the pre-election frenzy to close ranks is still a long way off. It's also a time when internal tensions can flare up. There are complaints about poor communications, internal decision-making processes, lack of information and so on. The various whips and caucus chairs of the political parties will need to be alert and show leadership to keep MPs in a good frame of mind. A cohesive caucus allows the leader to focus on 2026. An undisciplined caucus distracts both the leader and the political enthusiasts. What makes some people unhappy can make others happy.
