If recent polls are anything to go by, victory in Monday's by-election in Jean-Talon will be by a landslide. By stepping down at the end of July, former MP Joëlle Boutin has, in spite of herself, opened the door to a number of possibilities. So who's got a chance? Catapulte brings you a brief portrait of the candidates from the main parties, just a few days before the eagerly-awaited Quebec City election*.
Élise Avard Bernier
At a time when the Liberal Party is struggling to regain its political footing, its candidate is proving to be a real catch in the by-election. An entrepreneur who founded the popular Life as a parent and Life as a grandparentAvard Bernier has demonstrated her community involvement, and efforts to pair her with Marwah Risky could help her pick up a few more points. The latest data on Qc125 puts the Quebec Liberal Party at 12 %. Not enough to get elected, but a respectable score in this former Liberal stronghold could help restore the PLQ's reputation.
Olivier Bolduc
For his part, the Québec solidaire candidate is a veteran of election campaigns. In his fifth attempt, including a third time in Jean-Talon for the same party, candidate Bolduc has repeatedly demonstrated his perseverance - including within his own party, when its senior leadership and many activists would rather see his rival for the nomination win. This former railway worker turned court reporter had finished second in the 2022 general election, winning 24% of the vote. The stakes are primarily symbolic for QS, which would like to continue hammering home its message as an alternative to the CAQ and increase its deputation outside Montreal. Its 7% increase in voting intentions in the Quebec City region, as observed by the latest Léger poll, may not be enough.
Pascal Paradis
A former business lawyer turned founder of Lawyers Without Borders Canada, the Parti Québécois candidate's entry into politics has been nothing short of sensational. Talks with the CAQ about a possible candidacy for the governing party in 2022 led the two parties to accuse each other of lying. There's no doubt that the PQ troops, galvanized by a favorable trend in the polls both nationally and in the Quebec City region, would like to embody the real opposition to the government in the eyes of the electorate. The only poll conducted in Jean-Talon and the latest Léger poll put the PQ in first place in the region, but nothing is certain. A first victory in this reputedly federalist riding will require the PQ to outperform the vote-drawing machines of both the CAQ and Québec solidaire.
Jesse Robitaille
The Quebec Conservative Party candidate doesn't mince words when it comes to expressing his positions. A fervent opponent of the tramway project and an ardent defender of a third highway link to the east, the pre-hospital emergency care student has decided to take a chance, even though his leader, Éric Duhaime, has decided not to enter the race. In fact, Léger's first poll gave the PCQ 5% of voting intentions in Jean-Talon - a poor showing for the PCQ. timing for a party leader, he might as well enter the National Assembly. Never one to miss an opportunity to point out the government's U-turn on the Quebec-Lévis tunnel file, the Conservative Party has the potential to undermine the CAQ and federate a certain anti-establishment vote. It remains to be seen whether the party will even manage to replicate its score from the last election in the riding.
Marie-Anik Shoiry
This is the CAQ candidate's first election campaign, but not the beginning of her political life. Indeed, Ms. Shoiry has seen her father, mayor and then city councillor of Sillery in the newly amalgamated city of Québec, evolve in municipal politics for many years. Active in the social arena herself, after practicing law for several years, she founded the Vide ta sacoche organization, which collects, recovers and distributes hygiene and cosmetic products to women in need. With the CAQ having just lost 10 points in voting intentions in Quebec City, according to the latest Léger poll, nothing is guaranteed for the Caquist candidate. She can, however, count on the support of ministers and MPs who have lent her a hand door-to-door on several occasions. Unlike other by-elections, this one seems to be of interest to voters: with 22 % turnout at advance polls, it remains to be seen whether this interest will be to the advantage, or not, of the party in power.
*In alphabetical order
